User:Blazedspawn/sandbox/pack strategy

Acquiring new characters and weapons can be frustrating. Here are a few facts that won't make you feel better.
 * All pack contents are random.
 * Nothing can guarantee the appearance of a specific item in a pack.
 * items are never guaranteed except in the single-card packs Random Character (Ultra Rare) and Random Weapon (Ultra Rare) cards, found in the Item store.

Below are some specifics regarding probabilities and purchase strategies.

Overview
The first thing to understand about the packs available for purchase is that all items are random. They are drawn from a pool consisting of a set of consumable items and a set of permanent items.

Consumables items include boosters and combat supplies and character respec upgrades. This set never gets smaller.

Permanent items found in packs include characters, weapons, weapon mods, and supply capacity increases. The size of the set of permanent items changes depending on the state of the player's Collections. For example, the maximum number of capacity increases for Revive Packs is 3. The set of permanent items includes 1 Revive Pack Capacity Increase until all three have been acquired.

The pool for a given pack depends on the nature of the pack and the status of the player's collections.

Some packs are specialized.
 * Supply Packs and Jumbo Supply Packs only contain supplies and boosters.
 * Ammo Priming Packs only contain boosters, with 6 guaranteed ammo boosters.
 * Technical Mods Packs only contain boosters and weapon mods.

Some packs may contain any type of item, but the rarity of the contents depends on the cost of the pack.
 * Basic Packs never contain or  items of any type. There is a slight chance of an  item.
 * Advanced Packs contain at least 1 item, may contain  items, with a slight possibility of a  item, but never contain  items of any type.
 * Expert Packs contain at least 1 item, may contain  or  items, with a slight chance of an  item.
 * Premium Packs contain at least 2 items, may contain  or  items, with a higher chance (compared to Expert Packs) of an  item.
 * Arsenal Packs contain at least 2 items, may contain  or  items, with a higher chance (compared to Premium Packs) of a weapon.
 * Reserves Packs contain at least 2 items, may contain  or  items, with a higher chance (compared to Premium Packs) of a character.
 * Jumbo Premium Packs contain at least 10 items, may contain  or  items, with five improved chances (compared to Expert Packs) of an  item.

Characters
There are 12 characters, 6  characters, 11  characters, and 7  characters. Each character remains in the draw pool until it has reached Rank X.

Once all characters in the rarity group have reached Rank X, all are returned to the draw pool for the veteran ranks XI-XX. Veteran ranks are linked to character rarity; they will not appear for a rarity group until all characters in that rarity group have reached Rank X. Each character is removed from the draw pool once it has reached Rank XX.

For the most part, only one character rank is acquired at a time. (Very rare instances of two ranks have occurred.)

Until all 36 character kits have reached Rank XX, characters will be part of the draw pool for all packs that may contain any items.

Example
There are 6 characters. To begin with, all 6 characters are in the draw pool, one rank of each character. When one character has reached Rank X, it is removed from the draw pool. There are now 5 characters in the draw pool, one rank of each character. The number goes down again with each character that reaches Rank X. Eventually the number of characters in the draw pool is 1. When that character reaches Rank X, the other five are returned to the pool. The draw pool once again contains 6 characters, one rank of each character that has not reached Rank XX. Each character remains in the draw pool until it has reached Rank XX. Until all characters have reached Rank XX, they are part of the draw pool for all packs that may contain any item.

Weapons
The draw pool of weapons available is complicated by the existence of variants (Bulwark, Concussive, Siphon, and the five S Variant weapons). The appearance of variants of a weapon requires the base weapon reaching Rank X. Each variant weapon has ten ranks like the base weapon and the variant ranks are independent of each other.
 * There are 5 base weapons. Each of these has four variants: Bulwark, Concussive, Siphon, and S. All variants on these weapons are classed as.
 * There are 10 base weapons. Each of these weapons has three variants: Bulwark, Concussive, and Siphon.
 * There are 21 base weapons. Most have three variants; the M-37 Falcon, Reegar Carbine, Scorpion, Sovoa, and Venom lack a Concussive variant.
 * There are 18 base weapons. Each of these has three variants.

Each weapon is removed from the draw pool when it reaches Rank X, at which point the  S variant of that weapon is added. This weapon stays in the draw pool until it reaches Rank X. At that point, the three variant weapons are added to the draw pool. Each of these stays in the draw pool until it reaches Rank X.

Each, , and base weapon remains in the draw pool until it has reached Rank X. At that point, all variants of that weapon are added to the pool. Each variant stays in the pool until it reaches Rank X.

Until all 54 base weapons and their variants have reached Rank X, weapons will be part of the draw pool for all packs that many contain any item.

Weapon Mods
As with weapons, the draw pool of weapon mods available is complicated by the existence of variants (upgrades). Most base mods have two upgrades. The appearance of upgrades of a weapon mod requires the base mod reaching Rank X. Each upgraded mod has ten ranks like the base mod and the upgrade ranks are independent of each other.

Weapon mods differ from other permanent items in how they are acquired.
 * Base weapon mods can be found in all packs that contain any item and in Technical Mods Packs.
 * Upgrades of weapon mods can only be found in Technical Mod Packs.

There are 8 base mods.
 * Sniper Rifles have a unique Materials mod. Materials has 2 upgrades.
 * Pistols and Shotguns have melee mods with 2 upgrades each.
 * All four weapon types have accuracy mods.
 * The Assault Rifle and Pistol Scope mods have 3 upgrades each.
 * The Shotgun Choke mod has 2 upgrades.
 * The Sniper Rifle Scope mod has no upgrade.
 * Assault Rifles have a unique Stock mod. Stock has 2 upgrades.

There are 8 base mods.
 * All four weapon types have spare ammo mods. Each mod has two upgrades.
 * All four weapon types have base receiver mods.
 * The Assault Rifle, Pistol, and Shotgun Receiver mods have no upgrades.
 * The Sniper Rifle Receiver has two upgrades.

There are 4 base mods.
 * All four weapon types have barrel mods. Each mod has two upgrades.

Once a base mod has reached Rank X, it is removed from all draw pools and the upgrades are added to the draw pool for Technical Mods Packs. Each of these remains in the draw pool for Technical Mods Packs until it has reached Rank X.

Until all 20 base weapon mods have reached Rank X, base weapon mods will be part of the draw pool for all packs that contain any item and for the draw pool for the Technical Mods Packs. Until all 33 variant weapon mods have reached Rank X, they will be part of the draw pool for Technical Mods Packs.

Supply Capacity Increases
All supplies have an initial maximum carrying capacity of 2 for each supply. The maximum capacity for each can be increased with Capacity Increase cards.
 * Each supply can be increased to a maximum carrying amount of 5.
 * Supply capacity increases have no rank.
 * There are 12 total supply capacity increase cards - 3 cards each for Ammo Pack Capacity Increase, Cobra RPG Capacity Increase, First Aid Capacity Increase, and Revive Pack Capacity Increase.

Until all 12 increases have been acquired, supply capacity increases will be part of the draw pool for all packs that may contain any item.

Important Considerations
Once the permanent items in a pack's draw pool have been acquired to maximum rank, the pack will contain only consumable items.


 * Basic Packs will contain a random selection of supplies and boosters. There is a slight chance of an  booster.
 * Advanced Packs will contain a random selection of supplies and boosters, including at least 1 booster, with a slight possibility of a  booster.
 * Expert Packs will contain a random selection of supplies and boosters, including at least 1 boosters, with a slight chance of an  booster.
 * Premium Packs will contain a random selection of supplies and boosters, including at least 2 boosters, with a chance of an  booster.
 * Arsenal Packs will contain a random selection of supplies and boosters, including at least 2 boosters.
 * Reserves Packs will contain a random selection of supplies and boosters, including at least 2 boosters.
 * Jumbo Premium Packs will contain a random selection of supplies and boosters, with at least 10 boosters, with five improved chances (compared to Expert Packs) of an  booster.

One should also note the following:
 * Arsenal Packs may not yield any weapons after all weapons have been acquired, even if not all  weapons have been acquired.
 * Reserves Packs may not yield any characters after all characters have been acquired, even if not all  characters have been acquired.

Before buying any packs, make a note of the current state of your collections.
 * Do you have all of the weapons to Rank X? If so, there is no chance that a  weapon will appear in any pack.

The best strategy for purchasing packs depends on your play style. If you only run Bronze matches, don't use boosters, and don't care about maximizing ranks for characters or weapons, buy Basic Packs until you pick up the Charger and Viper. If you want characters or weapons, buy Advanced Packs. To get a better chance of characters at any level, Reserves Packs are a better choice. To get a better chance of weapons at any level, Arsenal Packs are a better choice.

If you enjoy playing Gold and Platinum matches, you'll probably want to acquire the best character kits to the maximum rank. What the best kit is depends on your play style. However, the Angara Avenger is probably among the strongest, having both Sticky Grenade and Stealth Grid among her skills. This is an character kit. Good weapons are important in higher level matches, the P.A.W. being among the best. The P.A.W. is an weapon. Boosters are also critical for higher level play.

items only appear in Expert Packs and above. While some packs have a higher chance for items than others, there is no guarantee that any pack will contain an  item.

This table shows the three least expensive packs containing characters and weapons and the size of the draw pool if the lower rarity items are not owned to maximum rank.

This table shows the three least expensive packs containing characters and weapons and the size of the draw pool if the lower rarity items are owned to maximum rank (including character veteran ranks, and weapon and weapon mod variant ranks). Note that the 23 items in the Basic pool are all consumables.

The least expensive way to acquire all permanent items to the maximum rank is to purchase Basic Packs until all items are in the collection, then Advanced Packs until all  items have been acquired. After that, it gets a bit more complicated. Expert Packs have at least one item. Arsenal, Reserves, and Premium Packs all cost twice as much, but also guarantee at least two items. Expert Packs don't favor weapons or characters. Arsenal and Reserves Packs give a higher chance for weapons or characters. Premium packs don't favor weapons or characters, but give a higher chance of an item than Expert, Arsenal or Reserves Packs. If you want to maximize all items, it doesn't much matter which of these packs you buy. Just keep buying them until you have everything.

Jumbo Premium Packs are five times the size of Premium packs, for five times the price.

Note: APEX Elite Packs haven't been available for purchase since March, 2019. They are more expensive than Jumbo Premium packs and only contain 10 items, but they also guarantee 5, at least 1 item and at least 1  item.

Basic Pack Examples
Basic Packs contain five random items, with a small chance for an  item.

Example 1
The player has not received any Reward packs, such as the Loyalty Pack (ME3) or Deluxe Edition Pack. The Collection contains only 12 characters at Rank I and 3  weapons at Rank I. This leaves 2  weapons to be acquired. The pool from which pack items are drawn consists of 12 Rank II characters, 3 Rank II  weapons, 2 Rank I  weapons, 8  weapon mods, 4 capacity increases, and 23 consumable items. Since a Basic Pack contains 5 items, the probability of getting at least one of the Rank I weapons is about 18%.

Example 2
The player has acquired one of the Rank I weapons. Assuming none of the other items have reached maximum rank, the pool of possible items has not changed size. The probability of the pack containing the remaining Rank I weapon is slightly less than 10%.

Advanced Pack Examples
Advanced Packs contain five random items, at least one of which is, with a small chance for a item. Most likely, four cards will be items.

Example 1
The player has received several Reward packs (Andromeda Initiative Pack, Deluxe Edition Pack, Deluxe Edition Pack 2 and Loyalty Pack (ME3)), containing a total of 32 items.
 * Characters
 * 1, Rank II
 * 2, Rank I
 * 1, Rank I
 * Weapons
 * 2, Rank II
 * 3, Rank I
 * 1, Rank I
 * Weapon Mods
 * 1, Rank II
 * 1, Rank I
 * 3, Rank I
 * 1, Rank II
 * Consumables
 * 7 Supply items
 * 7 boosters
 * 1 booster
 * 1 booster

The set of new items is 2 weapons—the Charger and the Viper. The set of new items is 11—4 characters and 7 weapons. The pool for an Advanced pack includes all and  weapons and characters, plus all  and  weapon mods, capacity increases, and consumables—94 items. Of these, 42 items are Uncommon. The probability that the guaranteed item will be a new character or weapon is about 26%. The probability that one of the other four items will be a new weapon or character is about 39%. The probability that one of the other four items will be a new weapon is about 8%.

Example 2
The player owns all characters to Rank XX, all  weapons to Rank X, and 2  characters to Rank X. No weapon mods have reached Rank X, but all capacity increases have been acquired. The set of new characters is 4, the set of new  weapons is 10. The pool for an Advanced pack includes no weapons or characters, but does include 6  characters, 10  weapons, plus  and  weapon mods and consumables—73 items. Of these, 42 items are. The probability that the guaranteed item will be a new character or weapon is about 33%. The probability that one of the other four items will be a new character or weapon is about 57%.

Example 3
The player owns all characters and weapons to Rank III and 2  characters to Rank II. No weapon mods have reached Rank X, but all capacity increases have been acquired. The set of new characters is 4, the set of new  weapons is 10. The pool for an Advanced pack includes all and  characters and weapons, plus all  and  weapon mods and consumables—90 items. The single guaranteed item is drawn from a pool of 42 items. The probability that it will be a new character or weapon is about 33%. The probability that one of the other four items will be a new character or weapon is about 49%.

- Permanent items found in packs:

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